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Thursday, January 06, 2005

A rotten President's re-election considered, Pt. II

I had some more thoughts from this morning, but since I slept in late ('til 6:30, woo-hoo!) I didn't have time to write them.

Mark Danner thinks that the re-election of President Bush had little to do with a sudden swelling of enthusiasm for Jesus the Gay Basher, and I tend to agree with him at this point. However, there is little doubt that many of the scaredy-cat voters who want Daddy with a shotgun to protect them have co-mingled the War Against Terrorism with "moral values". A big, fat quote (emphasis mine):

The Iraq war was not only irrevocably part of the war on terror – who could think, gazing at the car bombs and beheadings every night on television, that they were any different? – it had become a leading part of the ideological response to the threat of terror: a first step in the expansion of the holy cause of freedom. As Reagan had dared to go beyond staunch anticommunism and imagine a world after communism's collapse, so Bush looked beyond the present chaotic world of terror to see a blessed land of freedom. ("In this election, my opponent has spent a lot of time talking about a day that is gone. I'm talking about the day that is coming.") It was a striking vision, clear and absolutely simple to understand. And it linked, firmly and directly, the so-called "moral values" of justice, fairness, and the Almighty to the cause of national security, and specifically to the war on terror that the Bush people kept relentlessly at the campaign's heart. "Terror," "Iraq," and "moral values," supposedly separate "important issues," had been seamlessly joined.

I agree with him there, but there's more going on and it (yes again) makes me reflect on George Lakoff's theories about conservatives being "strict fathers" and liberals being "nuturing parents". I agree with him in the way the language is used, but for the conservative side, the metaphor has grown beyond a linguistic one and is being made much more emotionally resonant. Which is to say that Bush voters have willingly been infantilized with Bush as Big Daddy so that they can be protected. And that's where the notion that "moral values" are predominantly about how Sex is Bad comes into play.

There are two primary views of what sex is for most people. There is the story we tell children, which is roughly, "When a man and a woman love each other very much they get together and make a baby." It's the story I was told and I'm sure most people got some variation on it.

Transitioning to adulthood is about a lot of things. Gaining independence. Taking pride in yourself. Taking on responsibilities. One of the big things that changes is your view of sexuality. Most people transition from this childish view to a larger view of sexuality that is complex, where sex can be "about" a lot more than a man + a woman = a baby. In fact, it's rarely about making babies at all. And it's not necessarily "about" love. Nor is it strictly a man/woman thing, even for straight people. I dare say expanding your ideas about sex is as critical a part of being mature as is learning to take responsibility and gaining independent, especially considering how the subject dominates the thoughts of those who are making the transistion from child to adult.

The terrorists are scary, no doubt about it, and it's appealing to return to a cocoon of childish dependence and protection. But infantilizing people is apparently a whole package thing. There's decreasing independence. (The Patriot Act.) There's removing responsibilities. (Fight them over there so as to not fight them here. Go shopping. The FCC will raise your children for you.) And there's the sort of rule setting that most people expect of a strict father when it comes to sex, which is to say that anything but procreative sex is seen as too complicated and perverse.

I think that might explain why people who don't abide by the Christian right's intolerance are still letting themselves vote for a man who is cooperating with the fundies. They have been lulled into childish acquiesence. Okay, well Dad's rules are strict but if you live under Dad's roof, you have to play by Dad's rules.

200 Comments:

Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Amanda,
I'm a non-fundie who voted for Bush. I'm a Bush voter who actually supports gay marriage. To be more clear, I don't think the government should call it marriage, because that confers religious connotations which poisons the whole debate. Likewise, I don't think the government should call it marriage when straight people get married. To the government, it's a legal contract. Let's call it "civil unions" for everyone, gay or straight. At least then people who want to argue about marriage, can stick to whether or not their own church will support gay marriage, and quit bothering the rest of society.

That being said, I was stuck with a choice. I believe in the Bush doctrine on the war on terror, and support the Iraq war. I believe in school choice, tax cuts, privatization of social security, etc etc. And frankly, I don't think Bush is going to be able to push his religious agenda all that far, because we as a country have come to the point where we're not going to put that sort of discrimination into the Constitution.

So vote for someone who is for most of what I'm for, and can't pass what I'm against? When the option wants to expand government, increase taxes, can't make up his mind about the Iraq war, and appears to have more ambition than conviction, I'll take it.

Had the libertarian party had their ostrich-heads out of the sand on the national security issues, I would have picked them over Bush (especially since I'm in a heavily blue state). But they don't, so for any national races I picked Republican (local races libertarian).

Hope that helps to explain some of the thought processes.

1/06/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Now, time for some shameless link-whoring.

The Dumb AmericanThe first post I ever made to my blog... It may help to explain a little more where I'm coming from.

1/06/2005

 
Blogger Roxanne said...

So we've established that no matter what, Brad and folks like Brad are voting Republican. It's the mushy-middle the Dems need to worry about and target; the ones who went for Clinton but not Gore or Kerry. What's changed since Clinton? War on Terror. That means Dems need to get credible on fighting that war or they need to convince the MM that the war isn't as important as other issues. Kerry wasn't good at either with this group. If things don't change, the next candidate needs to do one of those two things.

I think the "morality vote" is a red herring.

1/06/2005

 
Blogger Amanda said...

Brad, thanks for proving my point. Dad's house, Dad's rules. Don't like having to live with him invading my privacy and sniffing around my sex life, but where am I going to sleep?

1/06/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Roxanne,
I think you're right. The "morality vote" was a crock. I think that was just the leftists excuse to bash Bush's mandate. The 51% didn't ratify opposition to gay marriage, they ratified Bush's ability to fight terrorism.

Amanda,
I'd rather live in Dad's house than Osama's. How well was the feminist movement working under the Taliban?

1/06/2005

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just posted some thoughts on the morality vote -- I don't see it as separate from the "war on terror".

Brad, you'll doubtless object that you care very much about the effects of W's policies, and view them as more effective on terror. But do you feel completely sure that belief in a moral universe -- a world that rewards 'virtue' -- hasn't influenced your position at all? If so, why do you feel so certain that invading Iraq will help us defeat Al-Qaida? Please read this before you answer, if you haven't already. I'm willing to bet it contains new information, particularly Questions 3 and 7. -Omar

1/06/2005

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Note that the second link explains why Al-Qaida didn't bother claiming responsibility for 9/11 -- they knew what we'd do in response, and claiming responsibility wouldn't advance this goal -- as well as their apparent lack of interest in targets that would do the most to hurt America. (Hint: why didn't we lose WWII?) -Omar

1/06/2005

 
Blogger Earnest said...

We shouldn't ask what has changed since Clinton; rather, we should ask what was special about Clinton. I get so mad when I hear people ask what has happened to the country. You didn't have to be very observant to see that the country was moving in a very fundamental way toward the right. It didn't even really start in the nineties; it started long before Clinton got elected and picked up steam during the nineties. What allowed Clinton to overcome that shift?

1/06/2005

 
Blogger Earnest said...

Actually, it was probably Perot that helped him overcome that shift in the first election.

1/06/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Omar,
First, I'm not a big proponent of a "moral universe". Considering I'm an atheist, I don't see a higher power looking down on us. And since I'm an engineer, I understand statistics and physics enough that I don't believe in "fate" or "karma". Blackjack is not my game, because I know that "luck" doesn't exist. Poker is my game, because intelligence and strategy can defeat an opponent, it's not a function of luck.

For point #3 on your link, I agree, to a point. Bin Laden may want that in his lifetime, but the aspiration of bin Laden and his associates is much wider. They want Islamic fundamentalism across the world. You forget, that to bin Laden, we are all infidels, and the holy writ of the Koran encourages jihad and the slaughter of infidels. Restoring the caliphate will only be a step to a much wider goal.

For point #7, it actually brings up some interesting points, that I hadn't considered. He is interested in fighting a war of attrition, and believes that the American people will eventually tire of fighting. Afghanistan, despite what Kos says, was a triumph for America. It is happening slowly, but we broke the hold of the Taliban, and the people there are not ready to submit to such a regime again. People braved through a lot of fear and promise of reprisal to vote in elections there. I personally believe that Afghanistan is going to turn around, much like a Turkey, and become a moderate Islamic state. Iraq is a tougher nut to crack, because the success of Afghanistan has scared bin Laden. They understand that they can't have another success. That is the reason they are determined to stop elections, and that is the reason we are so determined to continue them Jan 30. That, again, is the reason we are pushing so hard for Iraqi involvement and the Iraqis to take over. The stakes are *very high* here. But there is no other option than victory. And if we can get through the toughest part here in Iraq, and build another moderate state, the people of that nation are *not* going to jump back into fundamentalist Islam, as bin Laden wants.

1/07/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Omar,
I had some other thoughts as well, but I figured I'd break it into a second post.

Let's assume that what is in that link is correct, and that is the thinking process for the terrorists. What do we do to combat it?

Obviously, for bin Laden to reestablish the caliphate, he needs a strong enemy to match him, blow for blow, and bring moderate Muslims to his cause. If that is the case, his *entire goal* is to draw us into the fight. How does he do that? Terrorist attacks. On our soil. Enough to get the country into a frenzy. And if one does not work, he won't stop until he does draw us out.

So we can't sit idly by and allow him to continue this. If we do, he will continually attack the US and US interests until we bring the fight back to him. He'd been attacking us constantly, with no reprise, for years leading up until 9/11, and only when 3,000 citizens in the city that defines America to the world died, did we respond. We *CANNOT* just "turn the other cheek" when he's aiming for us with loaded jetliners and possible nuclear weapons. At some point he would have orchestrated a big enough attack to force a response.

America is not quick to anger, and not quick to war. But after 9/11, we joined a war that bin Laden and fundamental islamists had been waging for decades. The only way out of this war is to win it. The only option is to destroy al-Qaeda. And that is best accomplished by going after regimes who support terrorists, and building free societies that bin Laden can't exploit. We may not be doing a perfect job. Things aren't going exactly according to plan. War never does go to plan. But we can reach our objective, and we *must* reach our objective.

But as I have complied, and read and responded to your link, I suggest you do the same. I add my commentary here, but I suggest you read this link. It is long, but well worth it. I will put things into perspective.

Brad
http://warbs.blogspot.com/

1/07/2005

 
Blogger Amanda said...

"Amanda,
I'd rather live in Dad's house than Osama's. How well was the feminist movement working under the Taliban?"

Well, feminists were pretty much the ONLY people speaking up about the Taliban and since it was a "woman's" issue and not important, it pretty much went ignored. Except of course when we tried to kill Osama bin Laden, and your beloved Republicans claimed that it was a distraction from Clinton's adultery.

You seem to be under the impression that feminism was running the Taliban. Much like feminism runs the Christian Right, I suppose.

"I'd rather live under Dad's house than Osama's." I know that Rush claims differently, but Bush was actually running against a senator named John Kerry, not Osama bin Laden, who is not eligible to be President anyway, as he is not a U.S. citizen. Damn government and their rules!

I love the choice--Osama or Bush? It's like your strict father yelling at you over the phone, "My way or the highway! Do you want to sleep under a bridge?" and you reminding him that you are actually an adult with a job and health insurance, aka that you could have put a Democrat into office.

People who live in terrorist targets overwhelmingly voted for Kerry. That should say something--maybe they wanted police, firemen, security upgrades, and an actual army here instead of Iraq in case something happened?

1/07/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Amanda,
I only brought up feminism under Osama as a contrast to the US. In the US, our ideals support feminism, although it does not always happen perfectly in practice. Under the Taliban, their ideals are be definition anti-feminism. I know feminism is one of your issues, so that's why I used it.

Regarding the choice being Bush v Kerry, regarding Bush v Osama, I completely agree. The choice, however, hinges on two things. 1) How big of a threat is Osama. 2) Will Bush or Kerry do a better job neutralizing that threat? As you have seen from my previous posts, I think #1 is "Big" and #2 is "Bush". You may have come down with different answers to both questions, and I respect that. I just think you're wrong ;-)

1/07/2005

 
Blogger Amanda said...

It was a cheap shot and it also made no sense. Trying to get under my skin, which of course works since I am hot-tempered. But frankly, I see no reason outside of this infantilizing that I describe here to think that Bush would save our butts. Your willingness to "sacrifice" things is exactly the mentality I'm talking about--Dad's house, Dad's rules. Well, I don't live with my dad.

1/07/2005

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've skimmed Podhoretz again, but I have too many objections to list here. To your own words: what person with even as much power as a blogger wanted us to "turn the other cheek"? (Kos: "Ignoring one blow just invites the next. America is not a land of Quakers and Mennonites. If attacked, it is inevitable that we will respond." Kerry: "...hunt them down and kill them.") That doesn't mean we have to go out of our way to help Al-Qaida recruitment. In itself, it gives us no reason to invade Iraq.

I agree, in principle, that victory (insofar as we can achieve victory without, say, giving every human tel-empathy) would require the creation of democracies to replace tyrannies. Two points, though.
1. I would've made the destruction of Al-Qaida our first priority. Bush did not.
2. Our two biggest remaining foes in the region, Iran and Syria, are now completely surrounded by hostile nations. Since when? The way I hear it, the best case scenario for Iraq involves a "moderate" Shi'ite-Islamic state, which I take to mean a lot of power for Shi'ite clerics and few protections for women and gays. This doesn't sound like the best-case scenario for bin Laden, but it could easily lead to the worst-case scenario for us: a second Shi'ite theocracy right next to Iran. (Not to put too fine a point on it, but this explains why Iran might've wanted us to invade Iraq.) Meanwhile, Iran has an internal opposition movement. And it looks a bit like an Otpor-style movement, meaning that it might succeed with little military aid from us. Oh, and they seem to like America more than anyone else in the region. Why didn't we start there? It seems entirely possible, now, that an Iranian democratic opposition will succeed -- and find itself with a hostile neighbor to the west.

Incidentally, do you think anyone has the slightest chance of producing an Islamic theocracy in America? Even bin Laden doesn't seem to think he can achieve this without first restoring the Caliphate, and who gives a flying farg what he plans to do then? We don't intend to let it reach that point.

We've gotten pretty far off topic. Do you think that W would have won without the phenomenon I described? If so, how do you explain the joint evidence of psychological study and polls? The "values" vote far exceeded the margin of victory, yes?

1/07/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Omar,
You are right, we have gotten way off topic. Suffice to say I think we both believe the Osama needs to be stopped. We both believe that going after him is necessary. Where we differ is whether we believe that the overthrow of Saddam was a major part of the war on terror, and whether it will help or hurt us in the long run. I doubt we've got much chance of changing each other's minds, but perhaps our debate has swayed someone who read this either way.

But I completely disagree with your idea that the voters for W didn't care how it affected America or the human race, they just felt like they were voting for good vs. evil. My point is that the morality question is truly a back seat to the security question. And more people in this country believed that W was going to do a better job. You can talk about how the people who said they voted because of "moral values" was a lot higher than the margin of error. But I'd contend that all of those voters are part of the Republican base, and didn't vote for W over gay marriage, they were never going to vote Democratic anyway. While the gay marriage debate may have energize that base, it also energized the democratic base that supports gay marriage, and Fahrenheit 9/11 certainly energized the democratic base. Likewise, the gay marriage thing caused a very good friend of mine (in Ohio, no less), to vote libertarian instead of republican, as he said "I can't vote for someone who wants to put discrimination in the Constitution."

What we're looking at is the 20% of the nation that are swing voters. I don't think that group thought Kerry was immoral or supported "evil". I think for that group, safety took a front seat. And although you may think Kerry would do a better job, he certainly didn't articulate that as well as Bush did... And Bush doesn't articulate *anything* very well!

1/07/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Omar,
BTW great point about Iran's internal pro-freedom opposition. I completely forgot about them (d'oh!). If they can break the chains themselves, it will be a truly wonderful thing.

1/07/2005

 
Blogger Amanda said...

Of course they felt they were voting good vs. evil. Lucky for Bush voters, the distinction between the two was symbolic. Unfortunately for those of us on the "kill" list, there's no time for indulging moral values or Daddy or whatever. We actually want to live, something that Bush adamantly opposes if it affects him politically.

Libertarians are a joke. If you really believed in liberty, you'd be liberal. Libertarianism is wanting patriarchal values without having to actually turn down sex when it's offered. Pardon me if feminists aren't down with a worldview which gives us an even more subservient position. But if your mano y mano ass wants to fight it out, come over. Seriously. Libertarians love the idea of a fight, but reality is a whole 'nother thing.

1/08/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Amanda,
Have I done something to offend you? If so, please explain, because I don't know what it is.

At the moment, I'm confused. I have no idea what a "kill list" is, nor do I understand how libertarianism supports a patriarchal society. But without any idea of what you're talking about, I can't exactly defend myself.

My goal is not to sit here and bash people, so if that's what you think I'm doing, I'll be happy to go. I was trying to bring rational debate. If I've stepped over a line somewhere, let me know.

1/08/2005

 
Blogger Amanda said...

Blegh. Sorry. Nah, hang on. I can be cruel and rude at times without meaning to be. To rephrase, I don't like the pat answers that libertarianism provides for damn near everything. It seems unrealistic to me and idealogy-driven. For instance, no matter how many advantages I could point out that my government health insurance and government pension has over private versions of the same, there's no getting past the "government is bad" wall of libertarianism.

I will say this. The one thing I always found really appealling about the philosophy is the libertarian belief in taking government interference out of private decisions, like whether to charge for sex or whatnot. That seems like the only democratic solution in alot of debates--if there's power to the people, the only way to decide who's "right" in a debate over say, gay marriage or abortion, is to just let people be free and not meddle. I get angry because the very thing that makes sense in libertarianism to me--civil rights--is the very thing that most libertarians I meet find disposable.

A vote for Bush is a vote for controlling women's reproduction, stifling gay rights, the Patriot Act and other very non-libertarian things. These should be numero uno concerns to someone who doesn't want government interference with private citizens. But since it's no big thing, I have to wonder about the motivation for being "libertarian" if liberty isn't your top concern.

The kill list is the people who live in cities the terrorists are likely to target--New York, D.C., Chicago, and L.A. I wouldn't even rule out smaller but symbolic targets like Austin, since it's the capital of Texas, and therefore could, in theory, be attractive to terrorists who want to strike at Texas. The very people in this country who are most likely to die at the hands of terrorists are the people who were most likely to vote for Kerry. That's a mind-bending thing to consider when you think of how terrorism was a big issue for Bush voters.

My theory is clear enough. The closer you are to danger, the more you look to a leader who will provide practical leadership. The further away you are, the more you look for a leader who will explain the danger is broad, symbolic terms that help you understand it and maybe, just maybe, make you feel important. So people in danger voted for Kerry and practical solutions to their safety concerns. People not in danger voted for Bush who will tell them that those other Americans, the ones who died or could die, are dying for the forces of good in the eternal battle against evil. Being told that your life is in danger due to Good vs. Evil is cold comfort when your local fire department's funds are getting cut.

1/08/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Amanda,
Thanks for the response. Just wanted to make sure I hadn't overstayed my welcome.

To answer your thoughts about my "libertarianism". While this may not really endear me to you or your readers, I consider myself a mix between Republican and Libertarian. I pick and choose the parts I like (as we all do with our politics). And I am a libertarian that actually realizes that to radically reduce the size of government is never going to be done by one fell swoop of the pen. We have spent a hundred years incrementally building the size and purview of the federal government. People in this nation have become dependent on it. To remove it immediately would be a disaster. The only way to cut the size of government is again, incrementally over an extended period of time, so that we can adjust to it.

Anyway, thanks for explaining the "kill list". Do you have any data on the comparison of what percentage of people in those cities voted for Bush v. Gore, and what percentage of people voted for Bush v. Kerry? Big cities have been overwhelmingly Democrat for many, many years (I have my own theories as to why, but that's a different debate). If big city voters voted more heavily for Kerry than they did for Gore, I might accept your premise. But just saying that big city voters preferred Kerry over Bush is insufficient, as they would have voted for any Democrat over Bush. Hell, in downtown LA, Michael Moore would have defeated Bush.

(Full disclosure, I was raised in Chicago, and now live in the greater LA area (Orange County, actually). I'm going to move to Atlanta shortly, mainly for the housing costs and better educational system. But fear of LA being a terrorist target does play a small role in the move.)

1/09/2005

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Um, more people voted for Kerry than for any President in previous history. The map certainly suggests that most of those votes came from cities. -Omar

1/09/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Omar,
More people also voted for Bush than any president in history. That's not my question.

Compare city voters in the 2000 election (before 9/11) to city voters in the 2004 election. If a higher percentage of the 2004 city voters voted Democrat than 2000, then it may be a factor.

My point was that city voters *typically* vote Democrat. So saying city voters voted for Kerry because they are terrorist targets is only a valid comparison *IF* you can show that it had some effect on the voting percentages.

For example, if in 2000, LA went 70-30 for Gore, and only went 60-40 for Kerryin 2004, you could assume that perhaps that 10% defected from the Democrats perhaps over security issues. If they voted 80-20 for Kerry, then perhaps the added 10% was due to city-dwellers being worried that Bush was making them less safe.

I don't know the numbers from 2000 and 2004, and I'm not going to take the time to do the research. I'm not in any way denying that city voters went for Kerry due to security concerns. I'm just saying it has to be a fair comparison to historical trends to confirm or deny that statement.

1/09/2005

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't know about that, Amanda. Some would consider John Stuart Mill a libertarian (though others would consider him a liberal: I guess he was somewhere in-between).

Julian Elson

1/09/2005

 
Blogger Amanda said...

But Brad, if we are arguing the premise that Bush is going to *save us from terrorists*, and that is reason enough to sacrifice our civil liberties, then what do previous election trends really have to do with it. I grant that you're right--if it really, really is a choice between live free and die or live under Bush and live, then people are going to choose to live. If he really is going to save us all from Osama, then the cities, where people are under a real threat, should have turned out for him, don't you think?

NYC voted like 80% for Kerry, if I remember correctly. You'd think that those citizens MIGHT know a thing or two about what terrorism means. Why'd they go for Kerry? Were they not properly frightened?

1/09/2005

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Julian, I think she pretty clearly meant modern American/internet libertarians.

Brad, perhaps I didn't make myself clear. We know that 3% more people voted for W than voted for Kerry. Getting back to the topic, more people voted for Kerry in 2004 than voted for W in 2000, or for any President in any previous election. This logically implies that Kerry got more official votes than Gore. I have the impression that Kerry and Gore both got most of their votes from cities, which hold a large fraction of the population. See here. This suggests to me that quite a few more city voters went for Kerry than went for Gore. Looking at the District of Columbia vote in this other 2000 vs 2004 comparison, we see that Bush got an equal percentage of both votes, while Kerry got 90% to Gore's 85%. (Gore got a smaller piece of a smaller pie.) On a less relevant note, I feel glad that more Floridans voted for Kerry in 2004 than voted for W in 2000 -- at least Florida Democrats learned their lesson. (This difference exceeds the 2004 Florida margin of victory.)

1/09/2005

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ahem -- I meant "W beat Kerry by 3% of the popular vote," not 3% more than Kerry. Stupid basic math.

1/09/2005

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ahem -- I meant "W beat Kerry by 3% of the popular vote," not 3% more than Kerry. Stupid basic math. Note that Kerry beat W's 2000 numbers by a larger absolute number of votes. Note, also, that while I have no memory, Kerry still beat Gore by a huge number. -Omar

1/09/2005

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ahem -- I meant "W beat Kerry by 3% of the popular vote," not 3% more than Kerry. Stupid basic math. Note that Kerry beat W's 2000 numbers by a larger absolute number of votes. -Omar

1/09/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Okay, now we're getting somewhere. The link is only to states, but that shows some definite closer information.

Bush didn't lose any percentage in DC. Kerry did pick up some, although I'd have to look at how the Nader votes/etc were allocated in 2000, as the major candidates got more of the overall vote (although the increase went completely to Kerry). This was a much more closely fought election with a lot less third-party votes, so how they shook out makes a definite difference.

From state info, in NY, Bush picked up several percent, Kerry stayed about constant with Gore's numbers. In California, Bush picked up 2%, Kerry 1% (small enough to be statistically insignificant).

I think what it shows here is that we did not see an overwhelming *increase* in Kerry voters because they didn't believe that Bush would keep them more safe. However, it does also show that Bush did not necessarily attract city voters with his security focus.

Amanda, you're probably right in that city voters didn't get scared and come running to Bush. However, from what I can see (and the data is inconclusive, since all we have is state info, not city info), they didn't go running away from Bush either. Of course, it's also important to factor in that we had a much higher voter turnout, which could color our analysis of the numbers.

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