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Tuesday, January 04, 2005

A thought on Bush's "mandate"

This whole push to destroy Social Security under a set of hardly believable lies about saving it is being taken, if I'm not mistaken, as a signal that BushCo is empowered by their 1% "mandate".

I just read a story by David Sedaris where he talked about his mother asking him to share his Halloween candy. Rather than give up a single precious candy bar, he shoved all of them in his mouth. It was eat the candy now or never, was his thought.

I hope that's what's going on. They are trying to destroy Social Security before America wises up and kicks Republicans out on their collective asses. It's a possibility.

196 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Read that story a couple of months ago, and yes, it is a very good metaphor for this infantile administration. Definitely strict father mentality. I think that more people are aware of the machinations of this one trick pony (fear fear fear) administration, and they will not stand for it. Social Security is not in "crisis".

citizen spot

1/04/2005

 
Blogger Earnest said...

Clinton "transformed social security as we knew it" with under fifty percent, and Lincoln presided over a civil war with forty percent of the vote. All you need for a "mandate" is the office. Sadly, Lincoln didn't even get the honor of having a "commander-in-chief" jacket like our latter-day presidents have had.

1/04/2005

 
Blogger Crazy Mom said...

Thank God there are still sane people in this country. I think I am living in the wrong state; everyone here is as red as a cherry. I was beginning to wonder if normal people still existed. I suppose I should be worried about Social Security, but my main concerns are with the environment and wildlife. And the war, of course. By the way, do you think we will wise up? What does "wising up" entail? Should we be marching on Washington or something? How much damage are we going to let this man inflict, not just on us, but the world? Are you worried, or am I just paranoid?

1/04/2005

 
Blogger Earnest said...

Wising up means acting locally instead of organizing cacophonous marches on DC. Bush can't destroy Social Security; your legislators, however, can.

1/04/2005

 
Blogger Roxanne said...

Red or Blue, it's your congress that's going to "save" social security. Fortunately for us, those guys have to run for office every two years and they've got the power over the lame duck prez now. And many of the red ones can't win re-election if they support the administration's plans on SS.

What will probably end up happening is a compromise. So, look for a raise in the retirement age to 70-75 or maybe 80, based on life-expectancy. Which means the boomers (who have the voting numbers) will get to retire on schedule and we'll have to work for the rest of our lives, dropping dead AT WORK.

1/05/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

I don't understand.

You would rather put your faith in a government that has arbitrary power to change your benefits, tax your SS checks, raise your retirement age. When the option is actually having an account that *you own* and you control?

When you figure that 13% of your income is going to the social security system (a fund which Congress regularly raids for its own spending), that is entirely contingent on the future benevolence of Congress to give you benefits. How good would your 401k be if you were putting 13% of your income in?

Whatever date you put on the death of the system (as Neal Boortz says, if you enact the Fairtaxthe economic growth will be enough to save the current system), you have to ask yourself: is this the best way to help people? And frankly, I think it's nothing more than a Ponzi scheme that has needs to be revamped. As someone who understands the rule of compounding interest, I demand better with my 13%.

1/05/2005

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Quoth Citizen Spot:
"I think that more people are aware of the machinations of this one trick pony (fear fear fear) administration, and they will not stand for it. Social Security is not in 'crisis'."

However, the current administration is using fear to motivate change in the Social Security program. How many times over the last couple of years have you heard some official declaring that the Social Security system will run dry in 5 or 10 or 30 years? Whether or not the system will actually run out of money is irrelevant, because so many people beleive that they system will go bankrupt. Bush is counting on this naive misunderstanding to push his privatization proposal.

So, the one trick seems to be working.

Cheers,
xander

1/05/2005

 
Blogger zuzu said...

Brad, SS isn't a savings plan; it's an insurance plan. It's also well-funded; all this Henny Penny stuff about a looming crisis is just bullshit.

The problem with individual savings accounts? How's your 401(k) been doing lately? Not to mention, what kind of fees are going to be paid to manage the accounts, and who's going to collect them?

What Bush wants is to go from a defined-benefit plan, like a classic pension plan, to a defined-contribution plan, like a 401(k). You might do better under the latter, or you might get wiped out. If that's your main source of income, you might see why it's not such a great gamble.

1/05/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Zuzu,
My 401k has been doing fine. 2004 was a pretty solid year. We're almost back up to 11,000 again. The tech bubble (some might blame the federal reserve for that, I just think they made it worse). And it will go back up over the next year or two, probably in that time frame up near or above the heights of the tech bubble.

As for fees and volatility, there would need to be limits on the plans offered. And fees would be limited by law. After all, if the government is going to let companies bid for these services, they can require that fees be kept at or below market rates. For volatility, there would be options for things like treasury bonds (for those who don't like risk), up through low-risk diversified stock plans. I don't suggest letting people actually day-trade the market with these plans, or putting their money in "aggressive growth" mutual funds, as that opens to the very problems you mention.

Of course, you ask what will happen if the stock market crashes horribly, and everything gets wiped out. News flash: if that happens, the entire US economy is going with it, along with *ALL THE TAX DOLLARS* paying current social security benefits. If the sky falls, we're all screwed regardless of whether the plan is 401k-like or insurance-like, because there won't be money for anyone.

1/05/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

BTW, we can look at actual experience with this sort of a plan. If you look at Chile's Private Pension System, you will see that things have been going great down there once they got rid of their PAYGO system and replaced it with private accounts.

(Full disclosure: I am aware the link is from the CATO institute, a right-wing think tank. It was all I was willing to look up while sitting here at work.)

1/05/2005

 
Blogger lawrence krubner said...

But it's worth noting that historically much important legislation has been pushed through Congress on the pretense of crisis. The Taft-Hartly bill was pushed through in 1948, supposedly to save the country from Communists, but the real intent was clearly to bust up the labor unions. The Constitution itself was pushed through by means of a "crisis" many thought artificial. Thoughtful Anti-Federalists like Melancthon Smith felt that the Articles Of Confederation could be amended to make the nation stronger. Some of the wilder Federalists made some fairly extreme statements about the "crisis" America was facing in 1787 (mostly a difficulty paying its debts, which a consolidated government was supposed to have an easier time with).

1/05/2005

 
Blogger lawrence krubner said...

My favorite idea for saving pensions of all kind (of which Social Security is only one example) is to allow in a lot more immigrants. The "problem of an aging population" is an easy one to solve, we just need to import more young people.

This idea doesn't seem popular with conservatives or liberals. I'm not sure why. It allows pension benefits to remain the same with no increase in taxes, so in that sense it is the least painful solution to the problem of an aging population (the aging population is a threat to all pension plans, not just Social Security).

1/05/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Lawrence,
So, rather than fix the ponzi scheme, you'd just like to make the base of the pyramid bigger, to support those people retiring soon.

What do you do when that base is looking to retire? Import more immigrants?

A pyramid scheme only works if you continually expand the base of the pyramid to take care of the people at the top, or structure it in such a way that the top gets smaller quickly enough to balance the system. People these days have fewer children and live longer. Not good news for this pyramid.

1/05/2005

 
Blogger Amanda said...

As someone whose job straddle the public and private world, I find it amusing that libertarians think that private financial institutions are superior to public in any way, shape, or form.

1/05/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Amanda,
I'm not even advocating true libertarian ideals here. True libertarianism would be calling for absolutely no government involvement in this whatsoever. I advocate the government forcing people to contribute to investments rather than an overpriced "insurance" scheme.

My only question is: If right now, social security didn't exist. You had the choice of putting 13% of your money into something that might, someday, pay you ridiculously low benefits, would you sign up for it?

Which do you prefer, a system of "old age insurance", or a system that is planning for a retirement? Basically, when social security was introduced, it was a small thing to fall back on in case you lived long enough to not work anymore. It worked okay as that is concerned, and if you want to increase retirement age to receive benefits to 80, so be it. But increasingly the government is pushing social security as a legitimate retirement stipend. And in that capacity, it does not work, and it never will.

I assume that you're (relatively) young, as I am. Would you hesitate to invest in your 401k on the assumption that Social Security will be enough? I am planning my future on the assumption that social security will play no part in it, because I don't believe the system works. I have the luxury of extra income that I can put into a 401k. But what happens to the poor, who can't afford to contribute, who are stuck putting 13% of their income into a social security plan that will do nothing but ensure that they are poor when they retire?

According to today's dollars:
http://www.elderlawanswers.com/resources/s8/r33570.asp
The average monthly benefit is only $955 a month. The highest possible is $1939/month.

Is that what you want to retire on?

1/05/2005

 
Blogger Ron said...

A standard principle of investing is to diversify your holdings. Social Security is supposed to act as a safety net against income losses & losses in the stock market. Sure major economic collapse may bankrupt SS, but smaller scale recessions can cause huge hardship for many individuals. For example, my parents have postponed retirement because they lost 1/3 of thier 401K in 2001-2002. He is 66 & my mom 67 & they both will still work full-time until they are at least 70. If they had lost 1/3 of thier SS benefits as well, it would be worse for them. Thankfully they have thier health & wits so they can continue to work.

I don't think anyone should rely on thier SS alone to get them through retirement, but I think it would be wiser if congress worked instead on making investment in a 401K or similar product feasible to more working families. Most company matching funds max at 3%. Why not have incentives to increase that to 5% if you want people to have more money in a 401K?

Another example is employee-ownership of corporations. I work for one. Our pensions are stock in the company. Everyone who works here has motivation to keep productivity high & costs low. Even the relatively low-skilled people can have a comfortable retirement. It's a great idea and I think more should be done to promote employee-ownership. FYI, there are checks to make less feasible the type of abuses that Enron execs did to inflate thier personal fortunes out of employee pockets.

1/05/2005

 
Blogger Amanda said...

Brad, since I work for a government institution, we don't do 401Ks. We are forced to contribute to a general retirment fund, much like Social Security, that will pay us a pension when we get out. And yes, I like that plan a lot better because they are legally obligated to take care of me when I'm old.

1/05/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Amanda,
I'd venture to say that your pension plan is not very much like social security:

1) You don't have legislatures taking money out of it and leaving "IOUs".
2) It is probably managed in such a way to be self-sufficient. I.e. it is paid forward so that all future benefits are funded.
3) Your benefits when you retire are defined, they can't just be changed by legislative fiat.
4) The assets (just having assets is way different than social security) are managed in such a way to grow with interest, rather than just sit around and collect dust.

So your plan is far *better* than social security. You're in the same position I am, arguing for or against changes in social security knowing that neither of us will ever probably rely on it.

Again, I do highly recommend you read my previous link about Chile's retirement system. Specifically, the link there pointing to the PDF report, that fully explains it. So far, it has been an overwhelming success. And it has built-in safeguards to ensure that the government "pension" still exists. I don't see why we can't do the same thing here.

1/05/2005

 
Blogger Brad Warbiany said...

Ron,
The first thing I would ask is why your parents, at age 60+, still had their money in securities, rather than something more stable, like bonds/etc. But that's just an aside.

You talk about a diversified holding, and then at the same time you advocate employee ownership of their company? While I'm a big fan of stock options and employee purchase plans, *any* company can go bankrupt. It's a nice addition to a retirement portfolio, but it doesn't make a lot of sense as a main focal point.

I think again, I point you to Chile's system. It is a fully funded retirement program, with good safeguards. In addition, it has the fall-back position of a social safety net, for those who need it. It's as good or better for everyone as the old system. That would probably explain why such a high percentage have chosen to be a part of it? After all, it does leave the option for workers to stick with the old system.

1/05/2005

 
Blogger lawrence krubner said...

"So, rather than fix the ponzi scheme, you'd just like to make the base of the pyramid bigger, to support those people retiring soon."

Rather, smooth out the demographics, which are impacted by the Baby Boom. The Baby Boom is a huge demographic upsurge, and its retirement presents the problem of a sudden shift in financing Social Security. A small increase in immigration could smooth out the demographics involved, and make the transition gentler. We know we are moving to a world where Social Security has no surplus, but we can make that transition smoothly, and we can make it gentle by stretching it out over an even longer time frame.

Failing that, I'd love to see Congress declare that Social Security will close its doors in, say, 2030, and any future pension plan should be run by the individual states. That would confront the States rather starkly with their own long-term financial imbalances and perhaps force them to get their acts together. It certainly would be nice to see the Social Security tax, the most regressive of all Federal taxes, disappear from the scene.

1/11/2005

 
Blogger lawrence krubner said...

"If they had lost 1/3 of thier SS benefits as well, it would be worse for them. Thankfully they have thier health & wits so they can continue to work."

That's not necessarily a rescue that will be open to me when I'm at retirement age, because without changes to the system, it seems likely that Social Security benefits will be reduced. If I lose 1/3rd my money at the stock market, social security will possibly provide me with less protection that what its offered to your parents.

And then, if wanted, we could get into the discussion of why America's safety net it aimed so much at helping the old, whereas all the other advanced industrial economies have safety nets that focus on the young and the poor.

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11/07/2005

 
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Young at Heart : Regardless of your age, if you start acting too old, you will actually not benefit yourself at all.

Body Fat : When you think about losing weight, more importantly than weight is the amount of fat you are carrying around.

Do Not Forget the Teeth : Often the care of teeth and gums is overlooked as potential health risks.

Be Careful with the Sun : Everyone loves basking in the warm sun, especially if it is lying on a beautiful sandy beach.

Give your Eyes a Rest : Most jobs in today's society require the use of a computer.

Breast Exams : Make sure you conduct regular breast examines.

Make Time for Intimacy : If you are married, be sure to make time for intimacy in your relationship.

Puffy Eyes : If you battle with puffy eyes or dark circles that make you look worn out, do not feel alone.

FITNESS : Fitness is just as important as health, and in reality, fitness correlates directly with our health.

Squats : Squats are excellent for glutes, hamstrings, quads, and calves.

Get to the Gym : Working out at home is a good option and for some people

Get Ready to Run : Before any workout, always warm up.

Resistance : The next time you work out try adding some resistance to your routine.

Be Realistic : It would be great to be able to jump right into a hard workout, feel great, and see instant results.

Bowling : Get some exercise by joining a bowling league.

Fitness and Food : Certain foods provide specific benefits for people who workout.

Diabetes and Exercise : Aerobic exercise can actually be beneficial for people with diabetes.

Check your Pulse : As you exercise, it is to your advantage to keep track of your pulse rate.

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1/14/2006

 
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